Roger Federer: Now that he won Wimbledon, is he a lock to win the U.S. Open?
Yesterday, on July 9, 2006, Roger Federer just captured his fourth consecutive Wimbledon title, and 8th overall Grand Slam for his career. He beat Rafael Nadal, a Spaniard who just beat him on Clay in the French Open. Nadal hoping to this time beat Federer on Federer's surface got schooled by the Swiss 0-6, 6-7, 7-6, 3-6. Federer won the match in four sets in a very decisive way, thus asking the question "Is Roger Federer unbeatable on grass?" "Is he undoubtedly the greatest player in the world, with nobody else out there even in his sight?" The answer is yes, except for one player. That player is Rafael Nadal. People were very skeptical of Nadal's chances in this Wimbledon tournament. "Can Nadal win on the grass?" People asked. "Is he just another one-dimensional clay guy, who can only compete competitively on clay, or will Nadal be able to branch out his game and win on other surfaces (namely hard court and grass)?"
The answer to that very long question is simple. Yes. Rafael Nadal will win Grand Slams on surfaces other than Clay. He's only 19 years old, and he's got plenty of time to develop his game. Not only that, but he reached the Wimbledon Final. He should be very encouraged, and feel like he's got a good chance to go in and take the U.S. Open this year. However, I still pick Roger Federer to win the U.S. Open this year. No doubt. Federer is favored to win. If you are favoring Nadal, you are betting on at least one of three things to happen in Nadals favor. (A) Federer gets a tough draw (which he did here in Wimbledon and um... Look what happened, he won). (B) Nadal picks up the pieces, and suddenly figures out how to beat Federer on Hard Court. (C) Nadal outplays Federer.
The first choice is highly unlikely. No draw is too tough for Roger Federer. He beats everybody on every surface except for Nadal on Clay.
The second choice, is not likely, because the U.S. Open is only 2.5 months away or whatever (It's held in September, so mark your calendars). Nadal does not have that much time to figure out how to beat him on hardcourt (I'm not saying he can't or won't do it, I'm just saying Nadal's game is not going to change much is 2.5 months).
The third choice is most likely. Nadal outplaying Federer is the only way Nadal will win. He'll just have to play insane tennis which he is capable of, it's just that Roger Federer is feeling very confident right now and he too plays insane tennis. But the good news for Nadal is that the U.S. Open is on hardcourt, not grass, making the odds of Federer winning not as high. However, the other four Grand Slams Federer won have all been hard court. So, he still kicks ass on the hardcourt. Still, you've got to think that Nadal has respectable chances in the U.S. Open.
I think that the odds of Roger Federer Winning are at 60%. Rafael Nadal is at a cool 30%. Finally, the rest of the field, click....click....click....click...is at 10%. So, As you can see I'm figuring the odds of Federer or Nadal winning is around 90%. With the odds of both making the final, around 65%. (Nadal has a solid chance of getting knocked out in the quarterfinals or semis).
So, it seems to all of you that I have just ridden off 126 players in this next U.S. Open to win the Men's Championship. That should not seem true. There are other players out there who could win the U.S. Open besides Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Those players are Andy Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis (who recently lost to Federer in the Australian Open Final), Juan Carlos Ferrerro, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Andre Agassi (I have to throw him into the pile), Mario Ancic, and finally Andy Murray from England. These are just some of the players who could "conceiveably" win the U.S. Open. There's a lot of them isn't there? You see, that is the problem, none of these guys can be mentioned by themselves, they all have to be grouped together into the small 10% group. But, let me say, that these players I just mentioned are killer tennis players and any one of these guys, could come out of the sky, to take the U.S. Open title. It certainly is possible, just not likely to happen.
Well, that's all for now, don't despair if you think that is all I'll be writing about the U.S. Open. I'll write later on the Women's tournament, go more into depth on the other male contenders on the U.S. Open, in my offical U.S. Open preview, which I expect to write in two to three weeks. Until then, see y'all later.
The answer to that very long question is simple. Yes. Rafael Nadal will win Grand Slams on surfaces other than Clay. He's only 19 years old, and he's got plenty of time to develop his game. Not only that, but he reached the Wimbledon Final. He should be very encouraged, and feel like he's got a good chance to go in and take the U.S. Open this year. However, I still pick Roger Federer to win the U.S. Open this year. No doubt. Federer is favored to win. If you are favoring Nadal, you are betting on at least one of three things to happen in Nadals favor. (A) Federer gets a tough draw (which he did here in Wimbledon and um... Look what happened, he won). (B) Nadal picks up the pieces, and suddenly figures out how to beat Federer on Hard Court. (C) Nadal outplays Federer.
The first choice is highly unlikely. No draw is too tough for Roger Federer. He beats everybody on every surface except for Nadal on Clay.
The second choice, is not likely, because the U.S. Open is only 2.5 months away or whatever (It's held in September, so mark your calendars). Nadal does not have that much time to figure out how to beat him on hardcourt (I'm not saying he can't or won't do it, I'm just saying Nadal's game is not going to change much is 2.5 months).
The third choice is most likely. Nadal outplaying Federer is the only way Nadal will win. He'll just have to play insane tennis which he is capable of, it's just that Roger Federer is feeling very confident right now and he too plays insane tennis. But the good news for Nadal is that the U.S. Open is on hardcourt, not grass, making the odds of Federer winning not as high. However, the other four Grand Slams Federer won have all been hard court. So, he still kicks ass on the hardcourt. Still, you've got to think that Nadal has respectable chances in the U.S. Open.
I think that the odds of Roger Federer Winning are at 60%. Rafael Nadal is at a cool 30%. Finally, the rest of the field, click....click....click....click...is at 10%. So, As you can see I'm figuring the odds of Federer or Nadal winning is around 90%. With the odds of both making the final, around 65%. (Nadal has a solid chance of getting knocked out in the quarterfinals or semis).
So, it seems to all of you that I have just ridden off 126 players in this next U.S. Open to win the Men's Championship. That should not seem true. There are other players out there who could win the U.S. Open besides Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Those players are Andy Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis (who recently lost to Federer in the Australian Open Final), Juan Carlos Ferrerro, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Andre Agassi (I have to throw him into the pile), Mario Ancic, and finally Andy Murray from England. These are just some of the players who could "conceiveably" win the U.S. Open. There's a lot of them isn't there? You see, that is the problem, none of these guys can be mentioned by themselves, they all have to be grouped together into the small 10% group. But, let me say, that these players I just mentioned are killer tennis players and any one of these guys, could come out of the sky, to take the U.S. Open title. It certainly is possible, just not likely to happen.
Well, that's all for now, don't despair if you think that is all I'll be writing about the U.S. Open. I'll write later on the Women's tournament, go more into depth on the other male contenders on the U.S. Open, in my offical U.S. Open preview, which I expect to write in two to three weeks. Until then, see y'all later.
posted by Ben Parker at 2:25 AM
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