NBA Playoffs 2nd Round: Which Series is most likely to have an Upset?
This year's NBA playoffs have been as exciting as any playoff in recent memory. Specifically the 1st round. The exciting 1st round of the playoffs have set up 4 very intriguing matchups, three of which are David vs. Goliath like Situations.
The First matchup that has everybody drooling is the series between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Both teams seem to be pretty evenly matched and for the most part, the consensus among most sportswriters, and sports analysts seems to be that the Boston/Miami series is a toss up series. Lebron James, Dywane Wade, and Chris Bosh certainly seem to make up the best starting 5 due to the fact that they are younger and less injury prone, giving Miami the edge in the starting 5 department. However, In the role player department, the Celtics seem to have the edge with more weapons to use like Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Delonte West, Nenad Kristic, and Shaquille O'Neal (should he become healthy). So it's depth vs. better talent. The Celtics have Depth, and the Heat have better talent. But let's not forget the talent on Boston's side as well. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Rajon Rondo. The Celtics have just as much star power as Miami does, but the Heat are younger and their best three is a better combo than Boston's best three. Who do I expect to win the series? I expect Boston to squeak it out in 6 games, but not without a tough battle.
The other three series that are also going on is the Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls series, the Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder series, and the Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Lakers series. In all three series, there are teams that are heavily favored to win, and all three of the favorite teams trail in the series 0-1. Memphis, Atlanta, and Dallas are all the underdogs in their respective series, and yet all three have stolen home court from their favored opponents. But which team is most likely to pull the upset over 7 games? Which team is most dangerous to their opponent? To answer this question I'll break down all three matchups.
The Memphis/ Oklahoma City series is interesting because you have the most explosive young team in the league in Oklahoma City and the most mysterious young team in the league in Memphis. Can the Grizzlies continue their hot streak that they brought over from San Antonio into this series? Will Zach Randolph continue to produce? These are all critical questions. The answer can be found in the matchups. In my opinion the Grizzlies match up well with the Thunder because they have a better post game. Mark Gasol and Zach Randolph is a more offensively prolific duo than Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins of OKC. Not only that, but the Grizzlies are a much deeper team than the Thunder are. The Thunder rely too heavily on Westbrook and Durant to shoulder the scoring load. The big question for the Thunder is who will the third scoring option be? James Harden's name comes up as that possible guy, but he hasn't shown enough to suggest that he will step up to the plate. The Grizzlies have much more options in terms of scoring the ball. Mike Conley Jr at point, Zach Randolph and Mark Gasol in the paint, OJ Mayo off the bench to score points, Shane Battier to play some defense along with Tony Allen, Sam Young, Darrell Arthur etc. The Grizzlies have more players to work with and are deeper in terms of getting more guys involved. Greivis Vasquez, the rookie out of Maryland has looked especially good providing scoring for the Grizz. In short, Memphis has a great shot of knocking off OKC because they have more depth as an overall whole, and have a better paint. The key to the series is this: If Zach Randolph can match the productivity of Kevin Durant, the Thunder will lose the series.
The Atlanta/Chicago series is perhaps the most perplexing of them all. Atlanta last year rolled over like dead animals against the Orlando Magic, and this year came out and crushed the Orlando Magic in 6 games. Atlanta looked like the team that everybody thought they would be last year. Young, athletic, versatile, and dangerous. Joe Johnson played up to his 100+ Million dollar contract, Josh Smith played above the rim really well, Kirk Hinrich hit big shots, and most importantly was Jamal Crawford and his overall leadership. Crawford has hit big shot after big shot for Atlanta. The Hawks have shown to be a very deep complete team with a lot of weapons to use. Other guys I haven't mention are Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, and even Jason Collins who have all stepped up in the paint. The team they face is an equally young and exciting Chicago Bulls team lead by NBA MVP Derrick Rose at point guard. The Bulls have some dangerous players of their own besides Rose. They have Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah in the middle and Luol Deng as a swingman. The most important player for Chicago is Carlos Boozer, because he is the only real scoring threat they have in the paint. Noah's job is more or less to grab rebounds and play defense. Boozer's job is to score points and grab rebounds. Boozer hasn't done either yet in the playoffs, averaging 10.7 points and 7.7 rebounds. That doesn't cut if for an 18 million dollar guy. Those are numbers I'd expect from a modest role player like Andris Biedrins of the Golden State Warriors. The rest of the Bulls have been playing well. Rose is carrying his team as much as he can, averaging 27 points a game and 6.8 assists. And Luol Deng's 19 points per game is keeping Chicago alive right now. In terms of scoring it really drops off after Rose and Deng. With a hobbled and sub-par Boozer, the Bulls are in deep trouble. The key for the Hawks to beat the Bulls is to slow down Rose, and keep Boozer in his current state of driveling rubbish. Not only that, but if Atlanta is smart about their shot selection, plays good defense, and gets as many players involved as possible, they have a real shot as winning this series.
The Mavs/Lakers series is an interesting one, because for the first time in human history, the Dallas Mavericks are playing some defense, and showing some toughness. Overcoming a 16 point hole on the road in LA, the Mavs came back to beat the Lakers and silence the sleazy Los Angeles crowd. Mark Cuban leaped for Joy and had the look of a little Jewish boy who was getting a brand new bike for Channukah instead of the usual dreidel and pair of socks that he gets from his great depression era grandparents. The Mavs showed resolve and toughness last night. Dirk Nowitzki stepped up in the clutch and hit big shots for his team. That turn around shot that Dirk hits off one leg is as close to unguardable as any shot in the league. But the real key is defense for Dallas. We all know that the Mavs have been a great offensive team. But the "D" has been lacking in the "Big D". Tyson Chandler is adding a defensive presence to the Mavs that they've been lacking in the middle, and even Jason Kidd at the age of 38 is playing good defense. The Mavs unlike the Lakers have more weapons on the bench to use like Peja Stojakovic, Jose Barea, and Corey Brewer. The only concern for the Mavs is the size of the Lakers with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the middle. But as Charles Barkley pointed out, Dirk makes the Lakers very uncomfortable because their bigs can't guard Dirk on the perimeter. Dirk is a matchup nightmare for the Lakers, and with the depth on the bench and more balanced scoring of Kidd, Dirk, Terry, Chandler, and Shawn Marion, the Mavs have the pieces to really challenge the Lakers. The only player that really scares the Mavs is Kobe Bryant. If Kobe goes off, he's gonna give them serious problems. But if Dirk rises to the challenge, he can cancel Kobe out, and also damage the psyche of the mentally fragile LA Laker front court. In closing, here is the Key to the Mavs success: Defense! If the Mavs play some defense, don't turn the ball over, and play good basketball on both sides the court, they will be tough to beat and will put themselves in a great position to knock off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. The loss of Caron Butler will be missed, but with the edge in the Point Guard department and the big man department, the Mavs have a lot to use in their favor.
In closing, I think that Atlanta has the best chance to pull the upset because they have a more rounded out team than the Bulls do. Plus, the Bulls have Carlos Boozer. The Hawks to me seem to have a good shot to win their series over the Bulls. Next is Memphis, I think Memphis has a good shot, not as good as Atlanta's but still a real shot to knock off an OKC team that lacks experience in the playoffs (I'm picking Memphis and Atlanta to win). The only concern for the Grizzlies is star power. The Thunder have Kevin Durant, who is the best player in the series. That gives the Thunder the edge. But like I said, I feel like if Zach Randolph Matches Durant, they have a great shot.
Lastly, is Dallas, I find their odds to be the least likely simply because of who they are playing. The Lakers are the best team of all the favorites. Beating the back to back champs is the toughest order of all, but in sports, anything is possible. I honestly am rooting for all the underdogs to win their playoff series and advance on. Go Grizzlies, Go Hawks, and yes as much as I hate them, I have to say Go Mavs, because I hate the Lakers at a whole other level.
The First matchup that has everybody drooling is the series between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Both teams seem to be pretty evenly matched and for the most part, the consensus among most sportswriters, and sports analysts seems to be that the Boston/Miami series is a toss up series. Lebron James, Dywane Wade, and Chris Bosh certainly seem to make up the best starting 5 due to the fact that they are younger and less injury prone, giving Miami the edge in the starting 5 department. However, In the role player department, the Celtics seem to have the edge with more weapons to use like Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Delonte West, Nenad Kristic, and Shaquille O'Neal (should he become healthy). So it's depth vs. better talent. The Celtics have Depth, and the Heat have better talent. But let's not forget the talent on Boston's side as well. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Rajon Rondo. The Celtics have just as much star power as Miami does, but the Heat are younger and their best three is a better combo than Boston's best three. Who do I expect to win the series? I expect Boston to squeak it out in 6 games, but not without a tough battle.
The other three series that are also going on is the Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls series, the Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder series, and the Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Lakers series. In all three series, there are teams that are heavily favored to win, and all three of the favorite teams trail in the series 0-1. Memphis, Atlanta, and Dallas are all the underdogs in their respective series, and yet all three have stolen home court from their favored opponents. But which team is most likely to pull the upset over 7 games? Which team is most dangerous to their opponent? To answer this question I'll break down all three matchups.
The Memphis/ Oklahoma City series is interesting because you have the most explosive young team in the league in Oklahoma City and the most mysterious young team in the league in Memphis. Can the Grizzlies continue their hot streak that they brought over from San Antonio into this series? Will Zach Randolph continue to produce? These are all critical questions. The answer can be found in the matchups. In my opinion the Grizzlies match up well with the Thunder because they have a better post game. Mark Gasol and Zach Randolph is a more offensively prolific duo than Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins of OKC. Not only that, but the Grizzlies are a much deeper team than the Thunder are. The Thunder rely too heavily on Westbrook and Durant to shoulder the scoring load. The big question for the Thunder is who will the third scoring option be? James Harden's name comes up as that possible guy, but he hasn't shown enough to suggest that he will step up to the plate. The Grizzlies have much more options in terms of scoring the ball. Mike Conley Jr at point, Zach Randolph and Mark Gasol in the paint, OJ Mayo off the bench to score points, Shane Battier to play some defense along with Tony Allen, Sam Young, Darrell Arthur etc. The Grizzlies have more players to work with and are deeper in terms of getting more guys involved. Greivis Vasquez, the rookie out of Maryland has looked especially good providing scoring for the Grizz. In short, Memphis has a great shot of knocking off OKC because they have more depth as an overall whole, and have a better paint. The key to the series is this: If Zach Randolph can match the productivity of Kevin Durant, the Thunder will lose the series.
The Atlanta/Chicago series is perhaps the most perplexing of them all. Atlanta last year rolled over like dead animals against the Orlando Magic, and this year came out and crushed the Orlando Magic in 6 games. Atlanta looked like the team that everybody thought they would be last year. Young, athletic, versatile, and dangerous. Joe Johnson played up to his 100+ Million dollar contract, Josh Smith played above the rim really well, Kirk Hinrich hit big shots, and most importantly was Jamal Crawford and his overall leadership. Crawford has hit big shot after big shot for Atlanta. The Hawks have shown to be a very deep complete team with a lot of weapons to use. Other guys I haven't mention are Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, and even Jason Collins who have all stepped up in the paint. The team they face is an equally young and exciting Chicago Bulls team lead by NBA MVP Derrick Rose at point guard. The Bulls have some dangerous players of their own besides Rose. They have Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah in the middle and Luol Deng as a swingman. The most important player for Chicago is Carlos Boozer, because he is the only real scoring threat they have in the paint. Noah's job is more or less to grab rebounds and play defense. Boozer's job is to score points and grab rebounds. Boozer hasn't done either yet in the playoffs, averaging 10.7 points and 7.7 rebounds. That doesn't cut if for an 18 million dollar guy. Those are numbers I'd expect from a modest role player like Andris Biedrins of the Golden State Warriors. The rest of the Bulls have been playing well. Rose is carrying his team as much as he can, averaging 27 points a game and 6.8 assists. And Luol Deng's 19 points per game is keeping Chicago alive right now. In terms of scoring it really drops off after Rose and Deng. With a hobbled and sub-par Boozer, the Bulls are in deep trouble. The key for the Hawks to beat the Bulls is to slow down Rose, and keep Boozer in his current state of driveling rubbish. Not only that, but if Atlanta is smart about their shot selection, plays good defense, and gets as many players involved as possible, they have a real shot as winning this series.
The Mavs/Lakers series is an interesting one, because for the first time in human history, the Dallas Mavericks are playing some defense, and showing some toughness. Overcoming a 16 point hole on the road in LA, the Mavs came back to beat the Lakers and silence the sleazy Los Angeles crowd. Mark Cuban leaped for Joy and had the look of a little Jewish boy who was getting a brand new bike for Channukah instead of the usual dreidel and pair of socks that he gets from his great depression era grandparents. The Mavs showed resolve and toughness last night. Dirk Nowitzki stepped up in the clutch and hit big shots for his team. That turn around shot that Dirk hits off one leg is as close to unguardable as any shot in the league. But the real key is defense for Dallas. We all know that the Mavs have been a great offensive team. But the "D" has been lacking in the "Big D". Tyson Chandler is adding a defensive presence to the Mavs that they've been lacking in the middle, and even Jason Kidd at the age of 38 is playing good defense. The Mavs unlike the Lakers have more weapons on the bench to use like Peja Stojakovic, Jose Barea, and Corey Brewer. The only concern for the Mavs is the size of the Lakers with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the middle. But as Charles Barkley pointed out, Dirk makes the Lakers very uncomfortable because their bigs can't guard Dirk on the perimeter. Dirk is a matchup nightmare for the Lakers, and with the depth on the bench and more balanced scoring of Kidd, Dirk, Terry, Chandler, and Shawn Marion, the Mavs have the pieces to really challenge the Lakers. The only player that really scares the Mavs is Kobe Bryant. If Kobe goes off, he's gonna give them serious problems. But if Dirk rises to the challenge, he can cancel Kobe out, and also damage the psyche of the mentally fragile LA Laker front court. In closing, here is the Key to the Mavs success: Defense! If the Mavs play some defense, don't turn the ball over, and play good basketball on both sides the court, they will be tough to beat and will put themselves in a great position to knock off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. The loss of Caron Butler will be missed, but with the edge in the Point Guard department and the big man department, the Mavs have a lot to use in their favor.
In closing, I think that Atlanta has the best chance to pull the upset because they have a more rounded out team than the Bulls do. Plus, the Bulls have Carlos Boozer. The Hawks to me seem to have a good shot to win their series over the Bulls. Next is Memphis, I think Memphis has a good shot, not as good as Atlanta's but still a real shot to knock off an OKC team that lacks experience in the playoffs (I'm picking Memphis and Atlanta to win). The only concern for the Grizzlies is star power. The Thunder have Kevin Durant, who is the best player in the series. That gives the Thunder the edge. But like I said, I feel like if Zach Randolph Matches Durant, they have a great shot.
Lastly, is Dallas, I find their odds to be the least likely simply because of who they are playing. The Lakers are the best team of all the favorites. Beating the back to back champs is the toughest order of all, but in sports, anything is possible. I honestly am rooting for all the underdogs to win their playoff series and advance on. Go Grizzlies, Go Hawks, and yes as much as I hate them, I have to say Go Mavs, because I hate the Lakers at a whole other level.
posted by Ben Parker at 6:02 PM
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